It seems, the Federal Reserve is everyone’s bogeyman for inflation. But are they to blame? And could it be worse if it’s not their fault? — It seems, the Federal Reserve is everyone’s bogeyman for inflation. Milton Freidman famously said “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” Change in the quantity…

Markets and people may be wildly overpricing the risk of inflation. This would be the most widely telegraphed economic collapse ever. Bad things happen when people least expect them, not when everyone does. Maybe it’s not as bad as the pundits are saying? Let’s look at the data. Inflation Measures YoY and…

Price history means nothing in markets when liquidity goes to zero. Crypto markets are about to come face to face with this moment. — Price history means nothing in markets when liquidity goes to zero. Crypto markets are about to come face to face with this moment. Prices Falling I wrote about this in January here. Since then, as interest rates rise, the most important prices in crypto have dropped precipitously.

Sentiment has shifted, seemingly overnight, in technology, Reversion to the mean has begun. Where does it end? — Sentiment has shifted, seemingly overnight, in technology, as disparate unconnected actors are acting in concert. Many public tech companies are down significantly from all-time highs and venture funding in Q1 2022 slipped relative to Q4 2021. Many VCs are advising portfolio companies to cut burn.

bitcoin It’s easy to be pessimistic about markets. A clear bull case remains, but there are signals that suggest caution is the needed. My weekend Twitter feed is replete with market pundits calling for a crash, everywhere from US stocks to NFTs. It’s easy to be pessimistic. A clear bull…

Bitcoin and other cryptos may be on the verge of a much larger drop. Bitcoin and other cryptos may be on the verge of a much larger drop. Legitimate activity in the crypto space continues unabated, much of it rebranded as Web3. As Chris Dixon from A16Z has pointed out…